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OPEC+ plans to increase oil production by 2.2 million barrels per day by November amid compliance issues with members like Iraq and Kazakhstan. This follows a series of production cuts totaling 5 million bpd since 2022, with recent hikes aimed at addressing non-compliance and market pressures. Analysts warn that unless compliance improves, the anticipated supply increases could further depress crude prices.
OPEC+ plans to accelerate oil output hikes, potentially adding 2.2 million barrels per day by November, as Saudi Arabia seeks to penalize members like Iraq and Kazakhstan for exceeding production quotas. This shift follows a significant output increase agreed upon in April, aimed at expanding market share after years of balancing through cuts. If compliance does not improve, further cuts may be unwound by November, impacting oil prices amid ongoing inflation concerns.
Japan's Finance Minister KATO Katsunobu indicated that the country's $1.13 trillion in US Treasury holdings could be leveraged in tariff negotiations with the Trump administration, though he did not commit to selling these assets. Meanwhile, oil prices rose as China expressed willingness to discuss tariffs with the US, signaling potential easing of trade tensions. Concerns remain about the impact of ongoing trade disputes on global economic growth and oil demand.
Saudi Arabia's non-oil exports, including a 46% surge in re-exports, rose 14.32% annually in February, reaching SR26.11 billion. The Kingdom's trade surplus hit SR30.57 billion, driven by strong ties with the UAE, which accounted for 30% of non-oil exports. Despite a decline in total exports due to falling oil shipments, the non-oil trade performance reflects ongoing diversification efforts under Vision 2030.
OPEC has cut its 2025 global oil demand growth forecast to 1.3 million barrels per day, influenced by updated data and the economic effects of new US tariffs. Demand in OECD countries is expected to rise by just 0.04 mb/d, while non-OECD regions will contribute nearly 1.25 mb/d. The organization also slightly lowered its 2026 forecast, maintaining the same growth rate amid rising trade tensions and a revised global GDP growth outlook of 3.0% for 2025 and 3.1% for 2026.
OPEC has revised its 2025 global oil demand growth forecast down by 150,000 barrels per day to 1.3 million bpd, citing US tariffs and trade uncertainties. The group also lowered its projections for non-OPEC+ liquids production and global economic growth for 2025 and 2026. Despite these adjustments, OPEC maintains a long-term optimistic outlook for oil demand, expecting total demand of 105.05 million bpd in 2025 and 106.33 million bpd in 2026.
Oil prices have plummeted to their lowest levels since 2021, driven by escalating international trade tensions and an unexpected increase in supply from OPEC+. The market has seen a significant decline, with crude oil prices dropping to $60.30 per barrel, reflecting a 16 percent decrease since President Trump's recent trade measures. This imbalance between supply and demand raises concerns about the global economic outlook and potential growth slowdown.
Goldman Sachs has revised its oil price forecasts downward, expecting Brent and WTI prices to average $69 and $66 per barrel in 2025, and $62 and $59 in 2026, respectively. This adjustment is attributed to increased OPEC+ supply, weaker demand growth, and downgraded GDP expectations, with risks skewed to the downside due to potential recession and further OPEC+ output increases. The firm no longer provides a price range due to anticipated elevated volatility.
Oil prices rose slightly amid US President Trump's threats of secondary tariffs on Russian and Iranian crude, pushing Brent to $74.98 and WTI to $71.70. However, concerns over a potential trade war and increased supply from OPEC+ and the US are limiting gains. Analysts predict that slower global growth could dampen fuel demand, countering any supply reductions from Trump's threats.
Global energy demand surged by 2.2% in 2024, driven by rising electricity consumption, particularly in emerging economies. Renewables led the growth, accounting for 38% of the energy supply increase, while oil demand growth slowed to 0.8%, marking a historic drop in its share of total energy demand below 30%. Despite a rise in CO2 emissions, the adoption of clean technologies has significantly mitigated potential increases.
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