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UBS has revised its outlook for the Polish zloty, anticipating gains due to increased German defense and infrastructure spending, alongside potential benefits from a ceasefire in Ukraine. The firm has adjusted its USD/PLN exchange rate forecasts, projecting a stronger zloty against the dollar, with new end-of-quarter rates reflecting a more favorable medium-term outlook for the European economy. However, risks such as high tariffs and geopolitical tensions could impact this trajectory.
UBS has revised its forecast for the Polish zloty, citing Germany's increased defense and infrastructure spending and the potential for a ceasefire in Ukraine as positive factors for European growth. The updated USD/PLN exchange rate predictions for Q2 2025 to Q1 2026 are now 3.96, 3.89, 3.80, and 3.71, reflecting a more favorable outlook for the zloty. However, risks such as high tariffs and renewed US economic strength could impact this trend.
UBS has maintained a "Neutral" rating for Fraport with a target price of 58 euros, as analyst Cristian Nedelcu revised estimates based on recent business figures. Despite Fraport's low representation in investor portfolios and a high "short ratio," which could amplify the impact of positive news, concerns remain regarding cash flow outlook. The analyst is cautious, remaining below consensus expectations.
Raiffeisen Landesbank NÖ-Wien reported a profit of nearly 400 million euros for 2024, rebounding from a loss in 2022, despite one-off effects from its stake in Raiffeisenbank International due to the war in Ukraine. The bank's equity ratio increased to 24%, indicating strong resilience, while the cost-income ratio improved to 47.8%. Looking ahead, the bank anticipates continued growth but is budgeting conservatively amid economic uncertainties and an increased bank levy.
Jamie Dimon, CEO of JPMorgan Chase, expressed concerns about the economic landscape during a discussion at Adobe's annual summit, noting a "soft landing" phase but significant turbulence ahead. He highlighted geopolitical tensions, potential tariff impacts, and a decline in consumer spending among lower-income individuals, while wealthier Americans benefit from rising asset prices. Dimon remains optimistic about decreasing inflation but cautioned that the transition to a green economy could pose challenges.
The CAC 40 index has stalled below its record high of 8250 points after a significant rally, reflecting a cautious market despite optimism from economic developments in Europe and China. While the upward trend remains intact, investors are advised to wait for a breach of 8250 points or a drop to around 7850 points before buying. Key resistance levels to watch are 8500 and 9000 points.
Oil prices increased on Thursday, driven by a strong demand outlook in the US and a weaker dollar. Brent crude rose to $71.21 a barrel, while US West Texas Intermediate climbed to $67.54, supported by a significant drawdown in distillate inventories and expectations of a Federal Reserve interest rate cut.Despite a rise in US crude inventories, analysts noted that the overall demand remains healthy, with global oil demand averaging 101.8 million barrels per day. Geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and potential ceasefire talks in Ukraine also contributed to market volatility.
Central banks are in focus today, with the Bank of England expected to maintain its rate at 4.50%, while the Swiss National Bank may cut its rate to 0.25%. The Riksbank is anticipated to hold steady at 2.25%, with a dovish outlook possible. In the US, the Fed's recent meeting resulted in unchanged rates, leading to lower rates and a weaker USD, while global equities rose, particularly in the US.
Raiffeisen Bank is compelled by a Kaliningrad court to purchase a 28.5 million share stake in Strabag from Rasperia for around two billion euros, despite EU sanctions against Rasperia's former owner, Oleg Deripaska. This ruling could facilitate significant asset transfers between Russian and European firms, as Strabag benefits from shedding a "toxic" shareholder and gaining access to Raiffeisen's financing. The market reacted positively, with Strabag shares soaring to an all-time high following the court's decision.
Barclays has raised its year-end target for the STOXX 600 index from 545 to 580 points, driven by Germany's approval of a €500 billion spending plan aimed at boosting long-term growth in Europe. Despite potential challenges from U.S. trade tariffs, the firm maintains an optimistic outlook for European equities, particularly in the Financials and Industrials sectors. Barclays also increased its earnings forecasts, reflecting confidence in the region's economic resilience amid evolving global trade dynamics.
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ubs revises zloty outlook amid german spending and potential ukraine ceasefire
11:11 21.03.2025
ubs forecasts zloty gains amid german spending and potential ukraine ceasefire
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